grouser
I have noticed that the grapes grown on a pergola in our garden in the UK have developed a higher sugar content as the years pass. They were originally inedible but are now quite passable. A programme last night had an interview with a farmer in Devon who, in anticipation of climate change, has planted Olives and Almonds. His olive trees are already producing ripe black olives three years ahead of the expected time. Apparently Olives need a long growing period and a cold spell to thrive. This will presumably mean that Olives in Andalusia will have to move further and further up the mountains till they disappear off the top, the avocados chasing them and coconut palms flourishing on the bits of the coast that are still left above sea level. Blackpool will of course become the Costa del Sol._________________
I have noticed that the grapes grown on a pergola in our garden in the UK have developed a higher sugar content as the years pass. They were originally inedible but are now quite passable. A programme last night had an interview with a farmer in Devon who, in anticipation of climate change, has planted Olives and Almonds. His olive trees are already producing ripe black olives three years ahead of the expected time. Apparently Olives need a long growing period and a cold spell to thrive. This will presumably mean that Olives in Andalusia will have to move further and further up the mountains till they disappear off the top, the avocados chasing them and coconut palms flourishing on the bits of the coast that are still left above sea level. Blackpool will of course become the Costa del Sol._________________
Toddcl
I have been getting about 1 and 2/3 crops of fig's from my tree in Derbyshire. The second crop just caught the frost before being ready to eat._________________
I have been getting about 1 and 2/3 crops of fig's from my tree in Derbyshire. The second crop just caught the frost before being ready to eat._________________
Yomper
Enjoy it while you can. The weather will start cooling down again after 2012 if the solar activity predictions are correct. Man made global warming: a bandwagon for tax collectors. _________________
Enjoy it while you can. The weather will start cooling down again after 2012 if the solar activity predictions are correct. Man made global warming: a bandwagon for tax collectors. _________________
Toddcl
Yomper Please tell us more or give web site etc._________________
Yomper Please tell us more or give web site etc._________________
grouser
Todd some good pictures of solar flares here. http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html Wikipedia has info on the cycles but there seem to be several of them of different lengths, so its quite complex sorting out a pattern and I haven't found anything that shows this simply and clearly. Yomper enlighten us please._________________
Todd some good pictures of solar flares here. http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html Wikipedia has info on the cycles but there seem to be several of them of different lengths, so its quite complex sorting out a pattern and I haven't found anything that shows this simply and clearly. Yomper enlighten us please._________________
Toddcl
Wow Grouser, that page is interesting. I like the bit about high altitude aircrew getting a low-level radiation enhancement equivalent to approximately one chest x-ray may be observed for these personell. _________________
Wow Grouser, that page is interesting. I like the bit about high altitude aircrew getting a low-level radiation enhancement equivalent to approximately one chest x-ray may be observed for these personell. _________________
grouser
Yes, the writer has an unusual grasp of the English language._________________
Yes, the writer has an unusual grasp of the English language._________________
Yomper
For a look at what happened to sunspot activity around the time of the Maunder Minimum or 'little ice age' have a look at http://explorers.tsuniv.edu/starspot.asp It comes around every three hundred years or so and we're due another one fairly soon. This guys work is interesting. http://mitosyfraudes.8k.com/Calen/Landscheidt-1.html http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm This graph shows what's going on in the troposphere temperature wise, which is unaffected by surface temp anomolies caused by the urban heat island effect etc. http://www.john-daly.com/nasa.gif Despite emotive footage on ITV last week of chunks of ice falling off the edge of Antarctica (where do they think glaciers flowed to before man set fire to coal?) the antarctic ice sheet is currently thickening by around 9 gigatonnes a year. I'm sufficiently convinced that I'm buying a house in Andalucia rather than Lappland. _________________
For a look at what happened to sunspot activity around the time of the Maunder Minimum or 'little ice age' have a look at http://explorers.tsuniv.edu/starspot.asp It comes around every three hundred years or so and we're due another one fairly soon. This guys work is interesting. http://mitosyfraudes.8k.com/Calen/Landscheidt-1.html http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm This graph shows what's going on in the troposphere temperature wise, which is unaffected by surface temp anomolies caused by the urban heat island effect etc. http://www.john-daly.com/nasa.gif Despite emotive footage on ITV last week of chunks of ice falling off the edge of Antarctica (where do they think glaciers flowed to before man set fire to coal?) the antarctic ice sheet is currently thickening by around 9 gigatonnes a year. I'm sufficiently convinced that I'm buying a house in Andalucia rather than Lappland. _________________
Spanish Hopes
Well I don't know if it is climate change or not, but it's bl00dy cold here in the UK.
_________________
Nevada Smith
antarctic ice thickening - one of many scientific 'thoughts' on the subject... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4565935.stm
_________________
Toddcl
Thanks yomper. Your information puts a new slant on global warming / cooling / second ice age / planet going to turn into desert etc. So now I can throw sun spots into the discussion next time the topic comes up in the bar. Can't see it being more than two days before someone brings it up in conversation._________________
Well I don't know if it is climate change or not, but it's bl00dy cold here in the UK.
_________________
Nevada Smith
antarctic ice thickening - one of many scientific 'thoughts' on the subject... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4565935.stm
_________________
Toddcl
Thanks yomper. Your information puts a new slant on global warming / cooling / second ice age / planet going to turn into desert etc. So now I can throw sun spots into the discussion next time the topic comes up in the bar. Can't see it being more than two days before someone brings it up in conversation._________________
Spanish Hopes
Quote:
I'm sufficiently convinced that I'm buying a house in Andalucia rather than Lappland.
Quote:
I'm sufficiently convinced that I'm buying a house in Andalucia rather than Lappland.
If you have half as much pleasure from it as I have already had and a quarter as much as I intend to have you will be a lucky man. Enjoy it and don't let the prophets of doom on here put you off because they are jealous that you may make the success of it that they have so far failed to do.
_______________
grouser
Yomper do you know if any of the current climate modellers factor in solar flare cycles and if so what results they get? From what I understood from the links you posted it would seem to be cooling the planet by only 1 degree celcius when the low cycle kicks in, which if the other predictions are correct would only modify warming. How does the temperature in the troposphere have any effect on climate change on the ground? Nevada, thanks for that link, sadly it would appear from it that the ice build up is a temporary thing. Spanish Hopes 'Prophets of Doom' who they?_________________
Spanish Hopes
I wasn't referring to you grouser but you will no doubt have seen the many negative postings on here which are designed to shatter dreams. I don't mean the postings which point out difficulties and offer advice either as they can be helpful, and not at all intended to discourage.
_________________
Yomper
nevada smith wrote:
"antarctic ice thickening - one of many scientific 'thoughts' on the subject... "http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4565935.stm
"Sea levels are currently rising at about 1.8mm per year, largely because ice sheets in polar regions are melting, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said"
So in 550 years it could go up nearly... a yard. "Antarctica's "weight gain" is due to extra snowfall, caused by rising temperatures" Of course! the extra snow is due to ... you guessed it: Global warming.
Grouser wrote:
"Yomper do you know if any of the current climate modellers factor in solar flare cycles and if so what results they get? From what I understood from the links you posted it would seem to be cooling the planet by only 1 degree celcius when the low cycle kicks in, which if the other predictions are correct would only modify warming. How does the temperature in the troposphere have any effect on climate change on the ground? "
The computer models beloved of the IPCC don't take any account of solar influence. CO2 (a relatively weak greenhouse gas), can only raise the planetary average temperature by a degree or so. The rest of the 5 degree doomsday scenario relies on a computer model which predicts that a 1 degree shift will somehow propogate lots of water vapour ( a far more powerful greenhouse gas) into the upper atmosphere, where rather than forming clouds which would reflect more heat away fromt he surface, it would intensify global warming. To date, all the high altitude balloons which have been sent up to collect data have failed to find this computer modelled 'vapour'. The troposheric temperature is far more stable for long term measurements than the ground stations and offers the best 'background' measure we can use for longer term change. If the earth really is getting hotter overall, it'll show up in the troposphere, which is the layer immediately surrounding us. At the moment, in the big scale of time and temperature, we're just emerging from an ice age where the global average temp was around 11C. It's currently around 13C. Over the last 8 million years or so, the interglacial periods, (which are much longer than the glacial periods) have seen the global average temp peak out and rest in a steady state at around 22C. In the long run, itt's going to get hotter no matter how much less coal and oil we burn.
I'm all for better care for the enviroment, but this shouldn't be confused with climate change doomsday bullsh1t. Especially when the government peddling tax rises to you is helping to open new coal fired power stations in China on a monthly basis._________________
Toddcl
Said it before. A very learned friend who advises governments on environmental issues once told me that we are still coming out of the last Ice age. The great glaciers are still melting and the land mass is still heaving and subsiding. To simplify this. The planet is in a constant flux. Coupled with this is the volcanic actions of which many are under the sea and are lifting the sea floor while those that are on land discharge billions of tons of ash and gasses into the atmosphere. Planetary cycles, some of which are measured in thousands of years and solar flares all come into play. We cannot stop the universe or prevent the changes. It's not long since we were all being warned about the second ice age! Enjoy life, Life is so so short and your time is nearly up. Don't worry be happy
_________________
Said it before. A very learned friend who advises governments on environmental issues once told me that we are still coming out of the last Ice age. The great glaciers are still melting and the land mass is still heaving and subsiding. To simplify this. The planet is in a constant flux. Coupled with this is the volcanic actions of which many are under the sea and are lifting the sea floor while those that are on land discharge billions of tons of ash and gasses into the atmosphere. Planetary cycles, some of which are measured in thousands of years and solar flares all come into play. We cannot stop the universe or prevent the changes. It's not long since we were all being warned about the second ice age! Enjoy life, Life is so so short and your time is nearly up. Don't worry be happy
_________________
Spanish Hopes
I think one previous poster was exactly right. Climate change is simply another excuse to tax us into oblivion. _________________
grouser
Yomper thanks for the comprehensive reply, which helps to clear the fog a bit from a complex subject. My conscience will feel a little easier when boarding a plane next time. Spanish Hopes, I hadn't taken it personally, I had hoped that 'The Prophets of Doom' were a thrash or heavy metal rock band, so that I could impress my son with my knowledge of popular culture._________________
I think one previous poster was exactly right. Climate change is simply another excuse to tax us into oblivion. _________________
grouser
Yomper thanks for the comprehensive reply, which helps to clear the fog a bit from a complex subject. My conscience will feel a little easier when boarding a plane next time. Spanish Hopes, I hadn't taken it personally, I had hoped that 'The Prophets of Doom' were a thrash or heavy metal rock band, so that I could impress my son with my knowledge of popular culture._________________
Spanish Hopes
Grouser wrote:
"Yomper thanks for the comprehensive reply, which helps to clear the fog a bit from a complex subject. My conscience will feel a little easier when boarding a plane next time.
Grouser wrote:
"Yomper thanks for the comprehensive reply, which helps to clear the fog a bit from a complex subject. My conscience will feel a little easier when boarding a plane next time.
Spanish Hopes, I hadn't taken it personally, I had hoped that 'The Prophets of Doom' were a thrash or heavy metal rock band, so that I could impress my son with my knowledge of popular culture. "
If I knew what a heavy metal rock band was I'd impress myself. I was referring not to the many informed and helpful posters who as well as pointing out negative problems also give useful advice and encouragement, but to those who have taken the opportunity to fulfil their dream but appear to want no-one else to do so. They constantly put down any genuine request for help with pat phrases such as, 'I hope you aren't disappointed', 'You have no chance',
_________________
Toddcl
If the government was to take all the moneys collected on fuel taxes and use it to install every house with a solar energy water heater that would although not completely heat the water but reduce domestic power requirements by over 30%, wouldn't that both reduce emissions and demand on our dwindling power resource. Or am I being silly and missing something in my calculation?_________________
Spanish Hopes
You are being silly todd. The taxes collected to combat and reduce emissions are probably earmarked to pay for the wars in the middle east, or to BUY votes in the next election by being used on some PC project advocated by various minority floating voter groups. There is no way they will be ever used substantially for the purpose they are allegedly being collected. Everyone could of course pay for their own solar or other alternative heat source, then once it becomes popular they will find a way to tax that too.
_________________
Pete
The official term is hypothecation which means reserving the revenue from a particular tax to spend on a specific thing. In the UK, government policy (that's every government) is not to hypothecate taxes, so all monies from every source goes into one big pot that the exchequer portions out. This lends considerable creedence to Michael O'Leary's claims (to give one example) that fuel levies, or green surcharges are "just another tax" as they all go into the single central purse and don't therefore get spent on improving the environment. Personally, I'd be less annoyed about the tax I pay if I could see that (for example) my road tax was going to be spent on better transport. ________________
You are being silly todd. The taxes collected to combat and reduce emissions are probably earmarked to pay for the wars in the middle east, or to BUY votes in the next election by being used on some PC project advocated by various minority floating voter groups. There is no way they will be ever used substantially for the purpose they are allegedly being collected. Everyone could of course pay for their own solar or other alternative heat source, then once it becomes popular they will find a way to tax that too.
_________________
Pete
The official term is hypothecation which means reserving the revenue from a particular tax to spend on a specific thing. In the UK, government policy (that's every government) is not to hypothecate taxes, so all monies from every source goes into one big pot that the exchequer portions out. This lends considerable creedence to Michael O'Leary's claims (to give one example) that fuel levies, or green surcharges are "just another tax" as they all go into the single central purse and don't therefore get spent on improving the environment. Personally, I'd be less annoyed about the tax I pay if I could see that (for example) my road tax was going to be spent on better transport. ________________
grouser
Personally I don't object to paying a bit more to fly in the form of taxes. However I do think the money needs to go into alternative energy. Fossil fuels, even if they are not a major contributor to climate change, are not going to last forever, despite their name. Indeed there is evidence that supplies are about to, or already have peaked, (new finds will not equal current wells being exhausted) yet demand for them is ever increasing. So it makes sense to pay a bit more now if it alleviates a future problem._________________
Personally I don't object to paying a bit more to fly in the form of taxes. However I do think the money needs to go into alternative energy. Fossil fuels, even if they are not a major contributor to climate change, are not going to last forever, despite their name. Indeed there is evidence that supplies are about to, or already have peaked, (new finds will not equal current wells being exhausted) yet demand for them is ever increasing. So it makes sense to pay a bit more now if it alleviates a future problem._________________
Katy
None of us will be around to prove/disprove the global warming theories.
__________________
Valencia Paul
katy wrote:
"None of us will be around to prove/disprove the global warming theories."
Our children will though, and their children.
_________________
grouser
The fact that you may not be around to find out if something does or does not occur is no reason not to try and understand what may happen and hence develop an informed opinion on it, particularly when it is a topic that may have ramifications for the whole planet. I know that eventually our sun will evolve into a red giant and expand and engulf the earth. Just because that isn't going to happen for billions of years doesn't mean it isn't interesting or worth pondering on. Also as Paul says what is happening now and how things change in the immediate future will affect our children and the generations after them, so we have an obligation to them to try and make informed decisions ourselves and help them to do so as well in their own lives. Apart from anything else if my son asks me about climate change I would like to be able to make an educated response to his question and hopefully discuss the pros and cons with him rather than just say "I have no idea, go google it"_________________
Yomper
I have no problem debating the concepts and science with man made global warming proponents. I'd welcome responses to the points I've raised. I hope I still have an open mind, and am ready to be persuaded by logical argument and good evidence supported by verifiable sources. Unfortunately, much of the argument seems to be based on a belief in computer models which make some big assumptions about complex gas mixes which are poorly understood at the macro level. It's worth bearing in mind that it's not many years since we were being warned about our activity precipitating a new ice age.... Anyway, lets enjoy the lovely climate. _________________
Sid
There is an interesting article in the Telegraph about the myth of climate change here http://tinyurl.com/ylffvt _________________
grouser
At the beginning of this thread I had taken it as pretty much a foregone conclusion that climate change/global warming was caused by greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide in particular. The fact that George Bush didn't believe in it would have been almost persuasive enough. As the thread has progressed though it seems more and more evident from the links and evidence presented that the sun is a much more likely cause of the majority of what is happening, with carbon emissions playing a minor part. In one sense this has left me more confused. If this evidence of the sun's role in this is out there for all to see, why are prominent scientists, politicians and heavyweight media figures like David Attenborough ignoring it. I can see that there are sound reasons for weaning ourselves of our reliance on fossil fuels as they are a finite resource, but this is no justification for bad science. What is going on?_________________
None of us will be around to prove/disprove the global warming theories.
__________________
Valencia Paul
katy wrote:
"None of us will be around to prove/disprove the global warming theories."
Our children will though, and their children.
_________________
grouser
The fact that you may not be around to find out if something does or does not occur is no reason not to try and understand what may happen and hence develop an informed opinion on it, particularly when it is a topic that may have ramifications for the whole planet. I know that eventually our sun will evolve into a red giant and expand and engulf the earth. Just because that isn't going to happen for billions of years doesn't mean it isn't interesting or worth pondering on. Also as Paul says what is happening now and how things change in the immediate future will affect our children and the generations after them, so we have an obligation to them to try and make informed decisions ourselves and help them to do so as well in their own lives. Apart from anything else if my son asks me about climate change I would like to be able to make an educated response to his question and hopefully discuss the pros and cons with him rather than just say "I have no idea, go google it"_________________
Yomper
I have no problem debating the concepts and science with man made global warming proponents. I'd welcome responses to the points I've raised. I hope I still have an open mind, and am ready to be persuaded by logical argument and good evidence supported by verifiable sources. Unfortunately, much of the argument seems to be based on a belief in computer models which make some big assumptions about complex gas mixes which are poorly understood at the macro level. It's worth bearing in mind that it's not many years since we were being warned about our activity precipitating a new ice age.... Anyway, lets enjoy the lovely climate. _________________
Sid
There is an interesting article in the Telegraph about the myth of climate change here http://tinyurl.com/ylffvt _________________
grouser
At the beginning of this thread I had taken it as pretty much a foregone conclusion that climate change/global warming was caused by greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide in particular. The fact that George Bush didn't believe in it would have been almost persuasive enough. As the thread has progressed though it seems more and more evident from the links and evidence presented that the sun is a much more likely cause of the majority of what is happening, with carbon emissions playing a minor part. In one sense this has left me more confused. If this evidence of the sun's role in this is out there for all to see, why are prominent scientists, politicians and heavyweight media figures like David Attenborough ignoring it. I can see that there are sound reasons for weaning ourselves of our reliance on fossil fuels as they are a finite resource, but this is no justification for bad science. What is going on?_________________
Valencia Paul
For those interested here is some info on climate change theories and solar variation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variability I'm not convinced by Yomper's links. If we carry on burning fossil fuels then the CO2 levels will continue to rise indefinitely. If solar activity kept us cool for a period what would happen when we go into a hot solar activity period and we had unprecedented CO2 levels as well. You are right to be cynical about government taxes but I believe there are real dangers ahead and even Bush now seems to be going with the majority scientific predictions
_________________
Yomper
The three main problems with positing Co2 as a major forcing in climate change are: 1) No matter how much there is in the atmosphere, it won't raise the temperature much more than around 1 degree. 2) Ice core samples show that rises in temperature precede rises in atmospheric Co2 by 800 years. There's a problem with causation here for proponents of man made global warming to explain. 3) Co2 and global average temperature don't correlate very well.
Regarding "Majority scientific predictions", the apparent consensus is somewhat illusory. Lots of scientist agree that the climate is changing, but when you dig a bit deeper, you find that a lot of those who obediently pay lip service to the IPCC line in thye intro to their papers, then go on to demonstrate climate science at odds with the 'party line' This may have more than a little to do with issues around obtaining funding for their work._________________
For those interested here is some info on climate change theories and solar variation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variability I'm not convinced by Yomper's links. If we carry on burning fossil fuels then the CO2 levels will continue to rise indefinitely. If solar activity kept us cool for a period what would happen when we go into a hot solar activity period and we had unprecedented CO2 levels as well. You are right to be cynical about government taxes but I believe there are real dangers ahead and even Bush now seems to be going with the majority scientific predictions
_________________
Yomper
The three main problems with positing Co2 as a major forcing in climate change are: 1) No matter how much there is in the atmosphere, it won't raise the temperature much more than around 1 degree. 2) Ice core samples show that rises in temperature precede rises in atmospheric Co2 by 800 years. There's a problem with causation here for proponents of man made global warming to explain. 3) Co2 and global average temperature don't correlate very well.
Regarding "Majority scientific predictions", the apparent consensus is somewhat illusory. Lots of scientist agree that the climate is changing, but when you dig a bit deeper, you find that a lot of those who obediently pay lip service to the IPCC line in thye intro to their papers, then go on to demonstrate climate science at odds with the 'party line' This may have more than a little to do with issues around obtaining funding for their work._________________
Sid
More criticism of the Stern Report in today's Telegraph. http://tinyurl.com/32mcqf _________________
grouser
Interesting article Sid. I particularly liked this line: 'The dons get so piqued by Stern that some resort to the deadliest weapon of academic warfare — the footnote.' Still can't see what his motivation would be though._________________
More criticism of the Stern Report in today's Telegraph. http://tinyurl.com/32mcqf _________________
grouser
Interesting article Sid. I particularly liked this line: 'The dons get so piqued by Stern that some resort to the deadliest weapon of academic warfare — the footnote.' Still can't see what his motivation would be though._________________
Nevada Smith
google up "global warming" and you are confronted with 1 - 10 of about 23,000,000 english pages... i'm reminded of a line from one of dylan's songs - "a lot of people don't have any food on the table, but they got knives and forks and they gotta cut somethin'"...and then there's robert frost's poem, 'fire and ice', which led me to these pages www.businessandmedia.org/specialreports/2006/fireandice/fireandice.asp
google up "global warming" and you are confronted with 1 - 10 of about 23,000,000 english pages... i'm reminded of a line from one of dylan's songs - "a lot of people don't have any food on the table, but they got knives and forks and they gotta cut somethin'"...and then there's robert frost's poem, 'fire and ice', which led me to these pages www.businessandmedia.org/specialreports/2006/fireandice/fireandice.asp
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